CONFLICTS TO WATCH 2026
2026
Year 2026 is shaping up to be a true test of global resilience. We are not just observing the separate crises now – we are living in an era of great turbulence. The Russo-Ukrainian war, outbreaks in the Middle East, tension in the Red Sea and in East Asia are all these interconnected elements of a complex geopolitical puzzle. The rules that governed international stability for decades are no longer functioning, and instability is becoming the new norm.
Modern conflicts have long moved beyond traditional battlefields. Today, war is not only about tanks and territory, but also about economic pressure, cyber operations, and information manipulation. The global order is evolving: new regional actors are emerging, and many conflicts are increasingly conducted through proxy mechanisms in so-called “grey zones.”
Against this backdrop,key international actors are reassessing their security strategies, alliance structures, and instruments of influence. The focus of analysis includes high-intensity armed conflicts as well as latent confrontations that could escalate into large-scale crises under triggering circumstances.
This paper is intended to serve as an analytical tool for identifying major trends, assessing risks, and shaping strategic approaches in the field of international security in 2026.
Author – Collective
OVERVIEW OF ARGENTINA'S PARLAMENTARY ELECTIONS
2025
After two years of economic reforms and loud scandals, Argentina is heading back to the polls. 2025 midterm parliamentary elections will become a real test for President Javier Milei. Will Argentina continue its current reform trajectory, or realign with Peronist governance traditions?
With the cancellation of PASO primaries, the new voting system, the wave of protest by educators and medical professionals and also the loud defeat of Libertarians in the province of Buenos Aires, the October 26 election was turned into a political referendum on the state's future.
Authors - Valeriy Hardin, Anfisa Dikhtyarenko, Polina Sevidova
KENYA. CULTURAL MEDIUM AND LOCAL CONTEXT
2025
This analytical paper was issued in partnership with the Ukrainian Institute.
In 2025, Kenya, long regarded as a stable regional actor in East Africa, finds itself at a crossroads of internal challenges and shifts in foreign policy. Amid economic stagnation, debt pressure, and expanding dependence on agricultural imports, the government is seeking new strategic partners, including Ukraine. At the same time, society shows higher interest in global processes, including the war in Ukraine that has affected food security in the region.
In this context, Ukrainian cultural diplomacy is expanding its presence in Kenya through humanitarian and cultural initiatives. Can Ukraine turn temporary attention into a durable and mutually beneficial partnership? On top of that, can culture act as a strategic instrument to bridge information barriers and build a higher-quality partnership between the two states?
Author - Anastasia Sychova
NIGERIA. CULTURAL MEDIUM ANF LOCAL CONTEXT
2025
This analytical paper was issued in partnership with the Ukrainian Institute.
“Nigeria: The Cultural Medium and Local Contexts” explores Ukraine’s broader strategic search for new partnerships beyond the Euro-Atlantic space. In a world where geopolitical influence is increasingly shifting toward the Global South, cultural diplomacy is becoming not only an instrument of soft power, but also a means of gaining recognition and visibility. Nigeria — with its diverse cultural landscape, expanding creative economy, and layered historical context — stands out as a complex yet promising country for strengthening Ukraine’s presence in the region.
This study serves not only as an analytical overview, but also as an attempt to explore the structure of Nigerian society including its linguistic diversity, religious plurality, local cultural dynamics, and global perceptions of Ukraine. Based on in-depth interviews with representatives of culture, academic and civil society, the authors examine the conditions under which Ukrainian initiatives can gain visibility, acceptance and support. The study examines both cooperation opportunities and the sensitive issues that define its limits.
Author — Iliia Nesterenko
SCENARIO OUTLOOK: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN DENMARK, SWEDEN AND FINLAND
2025
In 2025, three countries, which traditionally were the symbol of stability and social consensus, entered into the decisive political process. Denmark faces outrage over governmental reforms, protests against severe economic measures in Finland gain strength and Sweden struggles with the crisis of integration and growth of crime.
Against this background, important geopolitical changes are taking place, such as Sweden’s and Finland’s accession to NATO and Denmark’s leading role in supporting Ukraine. How will these developments affect the domestic political agenda, and will governments be able to maintain a balance between security challenges and voters’ expectations?
Author – Collective
ON THE WASTELAND OF THE ORDER. STORY THAT DID NOT END
2025
"On the wasteland of the order. Story that did not end" - is an attempt to record the transformation moment from unipolar world to complex multipolar reality. Liberal world order that occurred after the Cold War is gradually losing influence under pressure from new centers of power such as China, Russia, and India. Competition in the global system is increasing, traditional alliances are weakening, and ideological conflicts are taking new forms.
Stability is being replaced by constant change and uncertainty, while universal rules give way to pragmatism and a balance of interests.
In this world, Ukraine stands on the front line—not only militarily, but also geopolitically. Its choice in favor of the West is driven not only by political calculations, but also by a shared values-based identity. At the same time, there is a growing need to look beyond the Euro-Atlantic space and build ties with new influential actors. The main focus is survival and consolidation in a system where being “right” is no longer enough—one must also be strong, flexible, and visible.
Author – Collective
Elections in Germany 2025
2025
On February 23, 2025, snap parliamentary elections will take place in Germany, and they will become one of the most important political events of the year in Europe. After the crisis within Olaf Scholz’s government, domestic political situation in the country has become more tense, while the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is gaining support among voters.
In this article, we analyze which political forces have the best chances of winning and how the election results may affect Germany and its role in the European Union. We will also look at what lies ahead for the country in light of the growing support for far-right forces.
Author – Collective
THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS 2024
2024
The European Parliament is the largest representative body of over 500 million people, elected on the basis of direct, equal, and secret voting rights. It includes representatives from 27 EU member states, each with different approaches to domestic and foreign policy. The European Parliament elections are not just about renewing a single institution but also potentially changing the political course of the Union. The EP elects the new head of the European Commission, the foreign policy body, as well as the European Council, the main strategic organ of the EU. This highlights the significance and importance of these elections for all of Europe and the world. The European Parliament lacks broad competence in the area of common foreign policy and sanctions policy against third countries of the EU, but it can shape political positions, represent public opinion according to its mandate, and appoint key figures responsible for sanctions policy in the EU.
Author – Collective
КЛЮЧОВІ КОНФЛІКТИ 2023
2022
2022 рік став ледь не найбільш напруженим у геополітичному та військовому планах з моменту завершення Другої світової війни.
Україна, Тайвань, Карабах, Сирія - ці топоніми минулого року були на вустах у всього світу. Тому в кожного постає логічне питання: "що чекати від 2023?"
Аби відповісти на нього, ми підготували спеціальне видання "Conflicts to Watch. 2023", де навели перелік найбільш гострих, на нашу думку, протистоянь, які варті уваги.
Author – Collective
HOW IS LATIN AMERICA REACTING TO RUSSIAN AGGRESSION?
2022
In this analytical report, the policies of 8 Latin American countries - Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Uruguay, and Chile - regarding Russian aggression are analysed. The criteria include the level of relations with Ukraine, positions on Russian aggression since 2014, reactions of politicians, military, and diplomats after February 24, 2022, provision of assistance to Ukraine, reasons for their stance, and prospects for bilateral relations or the struggle of Ukrainian diplomacy for support from these countries at the international level.
Authors – Collective
REGIONAL OVERVIEW: AUSTRALIA, NEW ZEALAND, OCEANIA
2022
This covers the main directions of the foreign policy of the countries of Oceania, the challenges they face, and prospects for regional leadership.
Also, read about the security policy of the countries in this region at the provided link!
Author – Collective
GEOPOLITICAL COMPETITION OF EXTERNAL ACTORS IN THE WESTERN BALKANS: CAUSES, TOOLS, EFFECTIVENESS, AND CONSEQUENCES
2022
The Western Balkans are currently not a central region in global or even European politics, unlike in the 19th and 20th centuries. However, they represent a microcosm of key global processes and trends, including intense conflicts, post-conflict regulation and reintegration issues, ethnonationalism, and the active penetration of third actors, particularly China and Russia. The Western Balkans present an extremely complex and multi-level operational environment, often transforming the politics and tools applied by third actors. While the EU has been a longstanding and established player in the region, China, Turkey, and Russia have only recently, in one way or another, returned here, necessitating research into their objectives, means, and achievements in the Western Balkans. Read about how Moscow, Ankara, and Beijing operate in the Balkans and whether they manage to implement their global and local tasks in our comprehensive study.
Author – Collective
INTERNATIONAL SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA: ASSESSMENT OF EFFECTIVENESS, IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES, AND CONSEQUENCES FOR THE AGGRESSOR
2022
● How much has Russia already lost and how much more will it lose due to the imposed restrictions;● Why hasn't the aggressor's economy collapsed yet, and why doesn't the dollar cost 300 rubles?;● How the Kremlin circumvents restrictions and how to close these loopholes;● Whether there will be new sanctions and how long Moscow can withstand such a regime.
Find answers to these and other questions in our current study.
Author — Olena Yurchenko
ECONOMIC QUARANTINE
2021
The pandemic, caused by the spread of coronavirus infection, has transformed not only our everyday lives but also a number of global processes. The quarantine has forced us to change our attitudes towards many things: instead of visiting eateries, people have started to use food delivery services more actively, streaming platforms have replaced cinema visits, and remote learning has taken the place of traditional face-to-face education, marking a shift from conventional mechanisms to more technological ones. Therefore, ADASTRA presents an analytical note on the consequences of COVID-19 for the economy and business.
Author — Collective
FOREIGN POLICY OF THE UNITED STATES TOWARDS UKRAINE
2021
This document is created for a long-term perspective and embodies the concept of a la carte approach – the readers of this policy brief may pick the best ideas out of this pile and put them into practice. It is essential to clarify that this is just a policy brief, and it is impossible to implement all the ideas expressed here at once.
Author — Arthur Koldomasov
UKRAINE-SAUDI ARABIA RELATIONS: CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS FOR FURTHER COOPERATION
2021
Ukraine-Saudi Arabia relations have been developing rapidly over the past three decades and continue to play a major role for both states in their efforts to implement geostrategic visions of both countries. Overall, this can pave the path to exploring new opportunities and building long-term strong partnerships between Kyiv and Riyadh in many strategic areas.
Author — Iryna Zaporizka, Kinda Bakr
PAKISTAN-UKRAINE BILATERAL COOPERATION AND WAY-FORWARD
2021
Over the last few years, a wide-ranging components have emerged as driving factors for steering the partnership between Pakistan and Ukraine. Trade has significantly increased, cultural and academic exchanges have been intensified, and political support has become evident. However, many sectors remained unexplored like tourism, IT etc. which can enable the two countries to further align their foreign policies and strategic interests.
Author — Collective
RESEARCH: YOUTH POLICY IN CHERNIVTSI
2020
Youth policy is an integral part of the harmonious development of the state and united communities. Practice convincingly demonstrates that those regions and cities which can effectively develop and productively utilise the innovative potential of development, primarily carried by the youth, have strategic advantages.
The study "Analysis of Youth Policy in Chernivtsi" was developed by the Analytical Centre ADASTRA on behalf of the NGO "Chernivtsi Youth Centre".
Author — Collective
COVID-19 CHALLENGES
2020
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought us not only fever and cough, but also tons of disinformation, attempts at manipulation, and the spreading of panic among populations in various countries. In such difficult times, media safety, as a component of information security, provides personal protection for internet users and helps not only to recognize unreliable information but also to prevent the spread of disinformation.
Author — Collective
OVERVIEW OF THE ELECTORAL PROCESS IN THE REPUBLIC OF CHILE AT THE END OF 2025
2025
This study analyzes the conduct of the parliamentary and presidential elections in Chile at the end of 2025 against the backdrop of ongoing political transformation and growing societal polarization. It focuses on the strengthened role of the parliament following institutional reforms, the impact of mandatory voting on turnout and electoral behavior, and the increasing fragmentation of the party system.
Special attention is given to social attitudes, as well as security and migration issues, which contributed to a rightward shift in the electorate. The paper summarizes the election results, outlines the configuration of political forces in Congress and the presidential race, and offers projections for Chile’s future political developmen
Authors - Maksym Volik, Anfisa Dikhtiarenko, Kateryna Lozovenko
THE FIGHT FOR FREEDOM: UKRAINE’S MITIGATION OF WAR CONDITIONS FOR DEMOCRATIC PROCESS
2023
Amidst a severe military crisis instigated by the Russian invasion, Ukraine is faced with maintaining democratic stability problems due to implementing stringent policies and regulations such as Martial Law to make fast decisions and safeguard its sovereignty. This paper explores the complexities and challenges of preserving democratic norms, focusing on (1) political rights, (2) civil liberties, and (3) governmental transparency during the exigencies of warfare. While these democratic elements face potential erosion during the war, their preservation and eventual restoration are crucial for Ukraine's post-war recovery and ongoing democratic development as well as Eurointegration.
Recommendations focus on the mitigation of policies that constrain democracy during wartime, maintaining public engagement, ensuring the power of human rights protection and enhancing transparency and accountability, which are essential for maintaining a robust democratic framework.
Author — Taras Prodaniuk
THE EU’S MISSION TO REBUILD UKRAINE
2022
Since February 24 of this year, as Russia invaded Ukraine, the economic and political stability in Europe has been disturbed. The continued destruction of Ukraineʼs economy and infrastructure is exacerbating the world crisis and putting parts of the world on the brink of a food crisis. The Ukrainian Recovery Plan presented in Lugano proposes the reconstruction of Ukraine. Since receiving a candidate status, Ukraine is one step further on its course to membership in the European Union. All this places the EU as the main guardian of the country's post-war reconstruction. This paper recommends that the EU and, in particular, the Czech Presidency should organise comprehensive assistance in this regard and identify its main priorities. First, besides assisting in upgrading the institutional capacities and efficiency of the central government, the EU should support the local actors and civil society partners in post-war governance. Second, the post-war recovery should connect Ukraineʼs immediate reconstruction and reform needs and the EUʼs long-term digital and green priorities rather than prioritising one over the other.
Author — Taras Prodaniuk, Artur Koldomasov
INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIP: COLLABORATION FOR A BREAKTHROUGH
2022
In this study, we analyse the main drivers of global partnership and the directions in which regional authorities can achieve significant results for the prosperity of their communities. Based on this analysis, we offer recommendations that should be considered for the effective implementation of international cooperation in support of European integration and the balanced economic growth of all regions of the country.
Author — Taras Prodaniuk
THE IMPACT OF EASTERN PARTNERSHIP ON THE CHANGING IDENTITY OF EASTERN EUROPE
2022
The diversity of conceptualisations and definitions of identity raises problems with the methodological harmony, clarity and operability of the construct itself for research. Nevertheless, according to A. Paasi, regional identity is the key factor for sufficient regional cooperation and successful interaction between the countries. This policy paper aims to elucidate the peculiarities of Eastern European regional identity as exemplified by Ukraine and Moldova, and the impact of the Eastern Partnership on the transformation of the aforementioned countries in the terms of their national and regional identification.
Authors — Olena Yurchenko, Ion Cantea, Olesia Mykhailova
WINTER SESSION OF PACE: WHAT IS THE UKRAINIAN DELEGATION TAKING TO STRASBOURG?
2022
On January 24th, the next session of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe will open in Strasbourg. In addition to the usual institutional (election of new leadership) and procedural matters, the agenda will include a series of topical discussions. What interests us the most are the topics concerning Ukraine, which is what we will be discussing in this article.
Authors — Bohdan Veselovskiy, Taras Prodaniuk
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR UKRAINE'S FOREIGN POLICY
2021
Assessing the current state of Ukraine's foreign policy, which is fundamentally based on a close intertwining of Atlantic and European vectors with an underestimation of other world regions, this document accumulates the most relevant recommendations regarding Ukraine's international political activities. The conceptual foundations of these recommendations stem from an analysis of the current foreign policy strategy and address its identified shortcomings. On the second anniversary of its establishment, the ADASTRA centre has prepared a comprehensive document with recommendations for the foreign policy of our state.
Author — Collective
UKRAINIAN EMISSIONS TRADING SYSTEM: AN ALTERNATIVE TO CARBON TAX
2020
In light of recent legislative proposals in the Verkhovna Rada regarding the reform of the carbon tax, our team decided to compare the carbon tax with the emissions trading system for greenhouse gases, to determine which model of the 'polluter pays' principle should be implemented in Ukraine.
Author — Viktor Karvatskyy